Mormon Stories #1250: Why The Mormon Church Has Declining Growth Rates - 2020 Edition Pt. 1

Why the Mormon Church's Growth is Slowing: Understanding the Data Behind Membership Decline

When the Salt Lake Tribune reported in January 2020 that multiple Utah counties were experiencing declines in Latter-day Saint membership, including a drop of 6,670 members in Salt Lake County alone, it raised an urgent question that believers and researchers alike have begun asking: what is driving the slowdown in Mormon growth rates? This question matters because the Church has long defined itself partly through numerical expansion. Understanding why that expansion is stalling requires looking beyond simple explanations and examining the complex intersection of demographics, culture, technology, and broader secularization trends reshaping American religion.

The Documented Pattern of Decline

According to Mormon Stories Podcast #1250, which featured sociologist Rick Phillips, the data reveal a consistent pattern rather than a sudden collapse. The share of Mormons in Utah, historically the Church's demographic stronghold, peaked around 1990 and has experienced what Phillips describes as "a fairly bumpy decline ever since."

This isn't unique to Utah. National trends show similar patterns: In-migration of non-LDS professionals drawn by Utah's economy and educated workforce A declining birth rate among Mormon families, even as they remain larger than the American average Rising non-religious identification among young people across all denominational backgrounds Increased geographic mobility and urbanization, which historically weakened religious community cohesion

The data suggest this is not primarily a crisis of sudden apostasy, but rather a gradual demographic shift reflecting deeper structural changes in American society.